Melate Odds Calculator

Melate is Mexico’s Pronósticos 6-from-56 jackpot. Defaults: Tickets 1, Ticket Price 15 (pesos), Jackpot 15,000,000, Main Matches 6. There is no Bonus Matches field: this model is Melate 6/56 only, not Revancha or Revanchita. Calculate: Jackpot Odds 1 in 32,468,436, which is 1/C(56,6). Jackpot EV at MXN $15 million is about −$14.54, because 15,000,000/32,468,436≈$0.46 of expected jackpot against a $15 boleto. The expensive line is the story; p is in the same neighbourhood as ZA Lotto and Quina.

Set Main Matches to 5: exactly five of six mains is about 1 in 108,228. Four mains about 1 in 1,767; three about 1 in 83. Real Melate also uses extra balls and extra raffles depending on the current reglamento; this page will not invent them. Revancha and Revanchita are additional draws sold as add-ons on the same numbers. If you bought Melate+Revancha, your outlay exceeds $15; only raise Price if you are stuffing add-on cost into a Melate-jackpot EV, which mixes products.

Tickets is how many independent 6-number combinations you hold for that Wednesday or Sunday concurso. A 10-combination boleto-style book is Tickets=10, Chance 1−(1−p)^10≈3.08×10^−7, EV≈−$145.38 at the $15 million default. Jackpot is the advertised primer premio Melate in pesos. Paste Pronósticos’ figure, not a Revancha pool and not a US Mega Millions headline.

Main Matches defaults to 6. There is no Powerball box. If you came from ZA PowerBall or Australian Powerball, you are on the wrong continent’s form. Melate since 1984 is 6/56, MXN $15 in this default, Wednesday and Sunday.

Read Jackpot Odds as C(56,6), This Prize Odds as the hypergeometric main-match cell, Chance as at-least-once, EV as n·(J·p−15) in pesos, jackpot-only, one winner.

If you hold a 8-número system, convert it to C(8,6)=28 simple Melate combinations: Tickets=28 at $15, not Tickets=1 at $420, unless you want bundle EV. Those 28 six-sets are disjoint as jackpot events, so Chance=1−(1−p)^28 is slightly conservative versus the exact 28p union, and 28p is exact. A family pool that always plays the same two QuickPicks should still enter 2, not 1. Wednesday and Sunday are different concursos; do not add tickets across the week unless you mean a two-draw teimosinha-style model with n=2 and the same p.

Melate has been Mexico’s flagship combinatory lottery since 1984, operated by Pronósticos para la Asistencia Pública. You mark six números from 1 to 56. Draws are Wednesday and Sunday. The brand sits next to Chispazo, Tris, and Melate Retro in the same kiosks, which is how tourists grab the wrong boleto. Melate is the 6/56 jackpot. The $15 default on this calculator is the simple Melate stake used as a modelling price; always confirm the live tarifa on Pronósticos because add-ons change what you actually paid.

Revancha and Revanchita are the Mexican twist: extra sorteos that reuse your Melate numbers for extra prize funds, sold as optional layers. They are culturally expected — people say they “also played Revancha” the way Australians say they added Powerball, except Revancha is another 6-number draw, not a 1–20 ball. This calculator does not simulate those extra barrels. It prices the Melate 6/56 jackpot. If your conversation is about who won Revanchita, you are off this page.

1984 places Melate among the older still-running 6-from-N games in the Americas, younger than some European 6/49s, older than South Africa’s 2000 Lotto. Matrix size 56 sits between ZA Lotto’s 52 and Mega-Sena’s 60. C(56,6)=32.47 million is the number that should be on the kiosk poster and almost never is.

Pari-mutuel primer premio, rollovers, and shared jackpots work as usual. A fat concurso fills centros de pronósticos. This EV assumes one winner and ignores impuesto on prizes, which in Mexico can matter at the top end. Educational expected value is not take-home pay.

Use the page to keep Melate distinct from Revancha/Revanchita and from US games sold in border towns, to see why a $15 line needs a roughly $487 million one-winner pool before jackpot-only EV hits zero, and to inspect five-number hypergeometric odds without pretending they are the official prize table.

The primer premio of Melate is calculated as six unordered números from fifty-six, the Pronósticos para la Asistencia Pública flagship since 1984, and the stake in this model is an expensive fifteen dollars, which dominates the expected-value story even though the combination count is only in the same neighbourhood as South African Lotto. Combinations: C(56,6) = 56 × 55 × 54 × 53 × 52 × 51 / 720. Step the falling product: 56 × 55 = 3,080; times 54 = 166,320; times 53 = 8,814,960; times 52 = 458,377,920; times 51 = 23,377,273,920; divide by 720 to obtain 32,468,436. Jackpot probability is 1 / 32,468,436, about 3.08 × 10^−8, or one in 32,468,436. Wednesday and Sunday are the concursos. Revancha and Revanchita are extra sorteos that reuse the numbers; they are not a Powerball and they do not divide C(56,6) on Melate.

Hypergeometric overlap for a six-spot boleto is P(exactly m) = C(6,m) × C(50, 6−m) / 32,468,436. Matching five is 6 × 50 / 32,468,436 = 300 / 32,468,436, about one in 108,228. Matching four is 15 × 1,225 / 32,468,436 = 18,375 / 32,468,436, about one in 1,767. Matching three is about one in 83. Those cells are main-number overlaps, not the full official reglamento with every extra raffle.

Independent combinations give at-least-once chance 1 − (1 − p)^n. Ten boletos sit near 3.08 × 10^−7. An eight-number system expands into C(8,6) = 28 six-sets; those 28 jackpot events are disjoint, so chance equals 28p exactly. Convert systems to simple combinations before quoting odds.

Expectation at the default $15 stake and a $15 million advertised primer premio is 15,000,000 / 32,468,436 − 15 ≈ 0.462 − 15 = −$14.538 per simple boleto. Ten combinations: about −$145.38. Jackpot-only breakeven with one winner is 15 × 32,468,436 = $487,026,540. That is the lecture's economic punchline: Saturday Lotto at eighty cents wants about $6.5 million to break even on jackpot-only arithmetic, while Melate at fifteen dollars wants nearly half a billion. Probability is only about four times harsher than 6/45; price is 18.75 times higher. Expected jackpot return at the $15 million default is forty-six cents against a fifteen-dollar outlay.

Assumptions: uniform six-subsets of fifty-six, independent boletos, one Melate winner, no Revancha or Revanchita cash, $15 stake, pesos or dollars as long as stake and jackpot share a unit, prize tax omitted, and no United States Mega Millions matrix imported from a border-town kiosk. Chispazo and Tris are different Pronósticos products. Licence-funded good causes do not alter C(56,6).