Teaser Odds Calculator

Leave Legs at 2, Points Adjusted at 6, and Stake at $100. Calculate. Estimated Payout is $190.90 and Estimated Combined Odds are 1.91. Those are the published six-point NFL two-team teaser prices: 1.909 decimal, about −110, the same juice as a straight side. The calculator treats 6 points as the anchor. If you leave the adjust at 6, every 2-to-6-leg result is exactly the standard card: two teams 1.91 / $190.90, three 2.80 / $280.00, four 4.00 / $400.00, five 5.50 / $550.00, six 7.00 / $700.00.

Change Points Adjusted to 7 with Legs still 2. Combined odds fall to 1.77 and payout to $176.96. The extra point of spread is not free: the engine scales the 6-point card by a probability ratio raised to the number of legs. The probability that an NFL margin covers a line moved by x points is modelled as a normal CDF of x / 13.86, where 13.86 is the Stern–Winston / scoring-model ballpark for the standard deviation of an NFL game margin. At 7 points that CDF is higher than at 6, so a fair payout must shrink, and the tool shrinks the posted 1.909 accordingly. A 10-point two-leg teaser prints 1.45 / $145.44.

Legs is an integer 2 through 6. A 3-leg 6-point teaser is 2.80, not 1.91³, because teasers are a card product, not a parlay of the underlying moneylines. Do not compare 2.80 to 1.91³ ≈ 6.99 and call the difference "juice"; the 6-point hook move is the product you bought. Wong's teaser writing is about whether that hook, at that card price, has positive EV on sides that cross 3 and 7, not about reconstructing a parlay.

Stake scales payout only. Combined odds are independent of stake. Use them to compare a 6-point two-leg at 1.91 against a book that is offering −120 (1.833) on the same card — the book is worse than this estimate — or +100 (2.00), which is better.

This is an estimate, not your ticket. NBA teasers, 6.5-point off-card specials, and teasers that include totals rather than sides will not match the NFL-margin SD of 13.86. If your book prints −110 on a 6-point two-teaser, trust the print for payout and use this tool to stress-test a 7- or 10-point variant they do not card.

A teaser is a parlay whose spreads (and sometimes totals) are moved in the bettor's favour in exchange for a worse payout than the raw parlay of those sides. The American football six-point two-team teaser at −110 is the textbook contract: you take two NFL sides, add six points to each, and accept approximately even-money-minus on the package. Three-team six-point teasers pay about 9/5 (2.80 decimal) at many books. This calculator starts from that published card — {2: 1.909, 3: 2.80, 4: 4.00, 5: 5.50, 6: 7.00} — and then rescales when Points Adjusted is not 6.

Stanford Wong's teaser analysis made the 6-point NFL contract famous: pushing a spread across the 3-point and 7-point scoring clusters can be plus-EV at −110 if you only tease sides that actually sit on the right side of those landings. That is a selection problem this tool does not solve. It does not know whether your legs are +1.5 teased to +7.5. It knows how many legs, how many points of adjust, and a Gaussian scoring model.

The 13.86-point margin standard deviation is in the Stern–Winston family of NFL scoring models: game margin treated as approximately normal, so the probability that a margin exceeds a number x is Φ(x / σ) with σ ≈ 13.86. That is a crude but standard first cut. Real NFL margins are discrete, piled on 3s and 7s, and slightly heavy-tailed. Using a smooth CDF to rescale a 6-point card to a 7-point or 10-point card is an interpolation, not a simulation of scoring drives. Treat 1.77 on a 7-point two-teaser as an estimated fair-relative price, then look at what the book actually posts.

NBA teasers, NCAA football, and totals teasers need different σ and different landing densities. A 4-point NBA teaser is a different product. Do not run it through this NFL-calibrated engine and trust the cents. Super teasers (10+ points, miserable payouts) are where the CDF scaling is at least qualitatively right — more points, worse combined odds — and quantitatively least trustworthy, because Φ(10/13.86) is deep into a region where the discrete 3-and-7 structure dominates a Gaussian.

Limits: 2–6 legs, one adjust applied to every leg, NFL σ = 13.86, card anchored at 6 points. No Wong-side filter, no push-push-win rules (some books push the teaser if any leg pushes; some grade the remaining legs), no ties-win specials. Estimated Combined Odds of 1.91 is 1.909 rounded. Estimated Payout uses the unrounded 1.909 on a $100 stake, $190.90.

A teaser is a parlay whose spreads, and sometimes totals, are moved in the bettor’s favour in exchange for a worse payout than the raw product of those sides. The American football six-point two-team teaser at about −110 is the textbook contract: take two National Football League sides, add six points to each, and accept approximately even-money-minus on the package. Published six-point cards for two through six legs are 1.909, 2.80, 4.00, 5.50, and 7.00 in decimal. This worksheet treats six points as the anchor. When the adjust stays at six, every two-to-six-leg result is exactly that card. Stanford Wong’s teaser analysis made the six-point National Football League contract famous; selection across the three-point and seven-point scoring clusters is a separate problem this page does not solve.

The rescaling for an adjust other than six uses a Gaussian stand-in for extra cover probability. Let Phi be the standard normal cumulative, and let sigma equal 13.86, a Stern–Winston style ballpark for the standard deviation of a National Football League game margin. Define p(x) as Phi of (x / 13.86), the model probability that a margin covers a move of x points. The card price b(L) is divided by the ratio p(adjust) / p(6), raised to the number of legs L. Combined odds equal b(L) over that ratio to the L. Payout equals stake times combined odds. When adjust equals six the ratio is one and combined odds equal the card.

The defaults are two legs, six points of adjust, and a stake of 100. Combined odds equal 1.909, displayed as 1.91. Estimated payout equals 100 × 1.909 = 190.90. Three legs at six points pay 2.80 and 280.00. Four legs pay 4.00 and 400.00. Five pay 5.50 and 550.00. Six pay 7.00 and 700.00. Change the adjust to seven with two legs still. Then p(7) = Phi(7/13.86) ≈ 0.69324 and p(6) = Phi(6/13.86) ≈ 0.66746, so the per-leg ratio is about 1.03863. Raised to two legs that is about 1.07875. Combined odds equal 1.909 / 1.07875 ≈ 1.7696, displayed as 1.77. Payout is about 176.96. The extra point of adjust is treated as a 3.86 percent relative increase in per-leg cover probability, which the house harvests by shortening the package price.

Assumptions are heavy and should be loud. The 13.86 figure is a scoring-model standard deviation, not a theorem. Teasing across three and seven is plus-expectation at −110 only for carefully chosen sides; this formula does not know whether your legs sit on +1.5 teased to +7.5. Totals teasers have a different margin distribution. College football has a different sigma. Legs are assumed independent after the Gaussian factor, which they are not if both games are on the same slate of weather. The worksheet reports estimated combined odds and estimated payout. It is a card plus a normal-ratio haircut, not a closing-line value study.