Totoloto Odds Calculator

Totoloto here is the Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa game as it has existed since the 2011 reform: five main numbers from 49 plus a Lucky Number (Número da Sorte) from 1 to 13. Default Ticket Price is 1 euro, default Jackpot 4,000,000. Draws are Wednesday and Saturday, the same evenings many Portuguese players also think about Euromilhões. Tickets is the count of independent 1 euro combinations on one of those draws, not a Euromilhões slip and not a pre-2011 6/49 Totoloto line.

Enter Tickets as expanded singles. One ticket is one 5-subset of 49 plus one lucky number from 13. A system bet that lists eight mains must be converted into C(8,5) times lucky-number choices before you type a count, or you will understate both cost and coverage. The engine treats every ticket as independent. Jackpot probability per line is 1/C(49,5) × 1/13 = 1/24,789,492.

Ticket Price is 1 euro, the Totoloto stake Santa Casa sells. Euromilhões costs more and uses 5/50 plus 2/12. Do not put 2.50 in Price because you usually play Euromilhões; you will compute a Totoloto p against a Euromilhões stake and a nonsense EV. Price only enters EV = tickets × (jackpot × p − price).

Jackpot defaults to 4 million euros, a sensible working bote for domestic Totoloto, far below Euromilhões rollovers. Paste Santa Casa's advertised figure when you have it. The calculator assumes you do not share the prize. Portuguese jackpots can split; this page will not.

Main Matches is 0–5 on the 49-ball main grid. Bonus Matches is the Lucky Number: 1 if you hit the 1-from-13, 0 if you miss. The 2011 jackpot definition is five mains plus the lucky number, so 5 and 1 is the top probe. Five mains without the lucky number is a lower class with probability (1/1,906,884)×(12/13). Pre-2011 Totoloto was 6/49 without this 13-way ball; if you are reading an old booklet, throw it away. This model is 5/49 + 1/13.

Outputs: Jackpot Odds 1 in 24,789,492, This Prize Odds for your (k, lucky) pair, at-least-once chances, Jackpot EV, Expected Jackpot Return. At 4 million euros and 1 euro, jackpot × p ≈ 0.161, EV ≈ −0.839 euros per line. Euromilhões EV is a different essay; do not mix the tickets field across the two games on one mental slip.

Totoloto is Portugal's domestic numbers lottery, operated by Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa, the same centuries-old misericórdia that runs Jogos Santa Casa, Euromilhões distribution in Portugal, Totobola, and the social-gaming mandate that Portuguese law wraps around state lotteries. The game older players remember was 6/49. In 2011 Santa Casa rebuilt Totoloto as five from 49 plus a Lucky Number from 1 to 13. That reform is the whole combinatorial story on this page. C(49,6) is no longer the jackpot denominator. C(49,5)×13 is.

Five from 49 is 1,906,884 main combinations. Thirteen lucky numbers make 24,789,492 jackpot combinations, about 1 in 24.8 million. That is easier than Euromilhões (5/50 + 2/12, 1 in 139,838,160) and easier than Spanish Primitiva's 6+Reintegro, and harder than a plain 5/49 without the lucky number. The 2011 change was marketed as a friendlier top prize with a new bonus-style ball. It also made historical odds tables obsolete overnight. Anyone quoting "Totoloto is 6/49 like Spain" is quoting a dead matrix.

Culture is the Euromilhões comparison. Portugal is a Euromillions country: Tuesday and Friday, cafés, syndicates, the transnational bote. Totoloto is Wednesday and Saturday, cheaper at 1 euro, smaller jackpots, Portuguese-only prize fund, Santa Casa branding rather than the stars. Players often hold both habits. This calculator is for the domestic five-plus-lucky grid, not for the 50-and-12 European grid. Mixing them in one odds sentence is how you get 1 in 140 million attached to a 1 euro Totoloto line, which is simply false.

Santa Casa's social overlay — Misericórdia hospitals, historic Lisbon, the charity story printed on the product — does not change p. It changes why the state defends the monopoly. Odds are C(49,5) and C(13,1). Prize fund rules, withholding, and how the lucky number appears on the slip are Santa Casa policy. Real Totoloto prize tables include rungs that use the lucky number the way French Loto uses the numéro Chance. This engine's Bonus Matches is that 1-from-13 object. There is no second European star.

Use the page to value a 4 million euro class bote at 1 euro a line, to see what ten lucky dips do (1−(1−p)^10), and to compare 5/49+13 with French Loto's 5/49+10 (19.07 million) and Set For Life's 5/47+10 (15.34 million). Totoloto sits in that family: five mains, a small bonus pool, a euro-ish stake, two draws a week. It does not sit in the 6/90 SuperEnalotto family and it does not sit in pre-2011 6/49 nostalgia.

Totoloto as Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa sells it since the 2011 reform is five mains from forty-nine plus a Lucky Number from 1 to 13. Anyone still quoting 1 in 13,983,816 is using the retired 6/49 matrix. Current jackpot probability is 1/[C(49,5)×C(13,1)]. Five from forty-nine is 49×48×47×46×45 / 120 = 1,906,884. Times thirteen lucky numbers: 24,789,492. So p = 1/24,789,492. Intuition that five-from-forty-nine must be easier than six-from-forty-nine fails once the lucky number is required: 24.8 million is larger than 14.0 million. The 2011 change was marketed as friendlier; combinatorially the new top prize is harder than the old six-main hit.

Portuguese retail confusion is Euromilhões. That transnational product is 5/50 plus two stars from twelve, jackpot 1 in 139,838,160, Tuesday and Friday, a higher stake. Totoloto is Wednesday and Saturday, one euro, Portuguese-only prize fund, Santa Casa branding. Mixing a Euromilhões denominator onto a one-euro Totoloto line is simply false. The Lucky Number pool is 13, not 10. French Loto uses a Chance ball from ten on the same 1,906,884 mains; approximating Totoloto as “France with a different logo” misstates odds by 13/10 and quotes 1 in 19,068,840 instead of 1 in 24,789,492.

Hypergeometric mains: C(5,k)×C(44,5−k)/C(49,5). Three mains: C(5,3)×C(44,2) = 10×946 = 9,460, about 1 in 202 before the lucky number. Miss it and multiply by 12/13, about 1 in 218. Four mains plus lucky: (5×44 / 1,906,884)×(1/13) = 220/24,789,492, about 1 in 112,680. Five mains without lucky: 12/24,789,492. Covering all 1,906,884 main combinations with one lucky each still leaves a 12/13 chance of missing the jackpot digit.

Independent lines give at-least-once chance 1−(1−p)^n. Twenty lines ≈ 20/24,789,492 ≈ 8.07×10^−7. Full jackpot cover is about 24.8 million euros of one-euro tickets for expected one top prize at a four-million working bote — not a plan. Santa Casa's misericórdia story, hospitals, and monopoly rhetoric do not change the product C(49,5)×13.

Expected jackpot value is n×(J/24,789,492 − 1). Four million over 24.8 million is about 16.1 cents of jackpot expectation against one euro, so about −0.839 euros per line. Lower lucky-number rungs add omitted return. Pre-2011 expected-value essays that still divide by C(49,6) describe a game the counters no longer sell. Keep thirteen. Keep five mains. Keep Santa Casa's domestic grid separate from Euromilhões stars.